Archive for July, 2009

GBPUSD – 29 July, 2009

Pivot Point: 1.6389

S1: 1.6311
S2: 1.6267
S3: 1.6189

R1: 1.6433
R2: 1.6511
R3: 1.6555

Notes: We’ve pierced the daily pivot to the bull side and the market has rejected it. The 1.6350 level has been tested 4 times in 24 hours. If it is tested again in the next 12 or so hours, I doubt there will be enough buy orders left to support this level. Look for price to drop to 1.6250 level (1.6246 is my calculation) in the next 24 hours. Any shorts should be placed at the pivot with stops above the most recent high, or on a breakout of the 1.6350 level with stops just above 1.6389.

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EURUSD – 29 July, 2009 – Trade Idea

Pivot Point: 1.4076

S1: 1.3957
S2: 1.3889
S3: 1.3770

R1: 1.4144
R2: 1.4263
R3: 1.4331

Notes: Look for shorts from 1.4080 with stops above 1.4110. Target 1.3957 then 1.3889. Last night, I called for this pair to drop to the 1.4000 level, and price tested 1.4000 (1.4007 actually). Nothing tells me that this pair will turn bullish today or tomorrow. Look for the turn around at the pivot point, which is in confluence with the 23.6% fib and a key S/R level.

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EURUSD – 28 July, 2009

Pivot Point: 1.4199

S1: 1.4093
S2: 1.4025
S3: 1.3919

R1: 1.4276
R2: 1.4373
R3: 1.4441

Notes: Blowout day. Look for reversals and pivot trades.

USDJPY 28 July, 2009


Pivot Point: 94.55

S1: 93.84
S2: 93.32
S3: 92.61

R1: 95.07
R2: 95.78
R3: 96.30

Notes: Blowout day. Look for reversals.

USDCHF – 27 July, 2009

Pivot Point: 1.0698

S1: 1.0654
S2: 1.0609
S3: 1.0565

R1: 1.0743
R2: 1.0787
R3: 1.0832

Notes: See EURUSD and expect the opposite.

USDJPY – 27 July 2009

Pivot Point: 95.08

S1: 94.79
S2: 94.39
S3: 94.10

R1: 95.48
R2: 95.77
R3: 96.17

Notes: There is a significant conflict between different timeframes on the Yen. We’re trading below the pivot point, but the daily candle close was bullish (higher high and higher low). The daily is at the 50% fib however, so a turn to the downside would be understood. If this is the case, you can expect a large downward push.

EURUSD – 27 July, 2009

Pivot Point: 1.4237

S1: 1.4176
S2: 1.4111
S3: 1.4050

R1: 1.4302
R2: 1.4363
R3: 1.4428

Notes: This looks like a bearish day for the Euro. We’re trading below the pivot, and the pivot also happens to be a significant probable reversal zone on the 1H chart. Still, be aware that price is approaching the bottom of a 1H bullish channel. Confirm any shorts with a 1-2-3 continuation past that channel.

GBPUSD – 27 July, 2009

Pivot Point: 1.6462

S1: 1.6403
S2: 1.6321
S3: 1.6262

R1: 1.6544
R2: 1.6603
R3: 1.6685

Notes: Tomorrow morning the CBI Realized Sales numbers are released. If you have current open positions, move your stops to a safe place, or close your positions. No trade recommendations on this pair tonight. Price is dancing on the pivot point. If I had to guess, I’d say that price will be Bearish tonight.

USDCHF – 20 July, 2009


Pivot Point: 1.0701

S1: 1.0636
S2: 1.0591
S3: 1.0526

R1: 1.0746
R2: 1.0811
R3: 1.0856

Notes: See EURUSD and do opposite.

EURUSD – 20 July, 2009


Pivot Point: 1.4199

S1: 1.4149
S2: 1.4076
S3: 1.4026

R1: 1.4272
R2: 1.4322
R3: 1.4395

Notes: EURUSD is trading in a symmetrical triangle. Recent price action tells me that the most probable direction for this breakout is bearish. The fact that we are trading above the pivot point tells me to hold off on a short order until a confirmed breakout at 1.4199. I do not recommend a trade at this time, but if you must trade short, let price break below 1.4199, then place shorts at 1.4199 with stops above 1.4235. Target 1.4149.

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